Since 1887, it has become an American tradition to have our weather forecast for the coming weeks decided by the most unlikely of creatures. Every year on February 2^nd^, people gather in the small town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania (which is about 75 miles NE of Pittsburgh) to see whether a groundhog (named Punxsutawney Phil) will see his shadow. According to the tradition, if Phil sees his shadow (which he “sees” 90% of the time), we will have six more weeks of winter.
As the Apostle Paul was journeying back to Jerusalem after his third missionary journey, he stopped in Miletus so that he could have the opportunity to speak to the elders of Ephesus one last time. His words were one of encouragement and of challenge, specifically to “shepherd the church of God” (Acts 20:28, NASU). As an example of how to accomplish this, he reminded those gathered of his own boldness in preaching not just what people wanted to hear, but instead the entire message God had given him: The “whole counsel of God” (20:27) as translated in the KJV.
What could possibly cause someone at some point in their life to truly believe that they would be better off dead? The inclination for self-preservation is so natural to all creatures created by God that such a desire must be caused by truly horrific circumstances. Someone who finds themselves in such a mindset would do well to remember the words of Paul:
For me, to live is Christ and to die is gain. Phil. 1:21 (NASU)
According to the ancient writer Plutarch, “When Alexander heard from Anaxarchus of the infinite number of worlds, he wept, and when his friends asked him what was the matter, he replied, ‘Is it not a matter for tears that, when the number of worlds is infinite, I have not conquered one?’” (Life of Alexander). This quotation describes an interesting attitude in a man who had conquered much of the known world at a young age. His weeping betrayed a glimpse of reality that not even Alexander likely truly appreciated.
The science of statistics is an area of study that focuses upon the likelihood of certain events and the frequency of certain events. It is a useful area of study, especially for such things as risk assessment or sociology. However, in terms of ratios of odds, many people are not fully appreciative of what certain odds mean.